讲座题目：Withholding Antibiotics

主讲人：Professor Alec Morton (University of Strathclyde)

讲座时间：4月8日（周一）下午4:30-5:30

讲座地点：嘉庚二203

主持人：庄伟芬（澳门永利yl6776管理科学系教授）

讲座摘要：An influential idea in health economics is that medicines should be given to patients if they pass a cost-effectiveness test: the ratio of cost to healthgain is below a hurdle. For antibiotics, this picture is more complicated as the use of antibiotics engenders resistance, meaning that health gain in the current period for the presenting patient must be balanced against the erosion of the effectiveness of drugs in future periods for the wider population. We introduce two models to explore different aspects of this dilemma. First we present an option model based on the case of pandemic flu, which shows that the conditions under which withholding is optimal can be characterized as a threshold rule. Second, we present a “delinked” financing model for antibiotics based on a scheme currently being piloted by the UK government, and show to derive an optimal sharing rule between a fixed and volume-based payment.

主讲人简介：

Alec Morton is a professor in the Department of Management Science at the University of Strathclyde. He has degrees from the University of Manchester and the University of Strathclyde. He has worked for Singapore Airlines, the National University of Singapore, and the London School of Economics, has held visiting positions at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Aalto University in Helsinki, and the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei, and has been on secondment at the National Audit Office.  His main interests are in decision analysis and health economics, and he is one of the developers of the STAR toolkit sponsored by the Health Foundation.  He is a member of the International Decision Support Initiative and the Health Service Research Center of USTC.

Alec has been active in the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society and the OR Society. He is on the Editorial Board of Decision Analysis and is an Associate Editor for the EURO Journal on Decision Processes, the Transactions of the Institute of Industrial Engineers, and OR Spectrum. Past consulting clients include the National Audit Office, the Department of Health, the Environment Agency, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis & Malaria. His papers have won awards from the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Risk Analysis.  His book Portfolio Decision Analysis with Jeff Keisler and Ahti Salo won the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society publication award in 2013 and his paper "CUT: A Multicriteria Approach for Concavifiable Preferences" (with Nikos Argyris and Jose Figueira) was a finalist for the same prize in 2016.